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agdanbaopingtaiwangzhi

农产品继续弱势震荡 化工品谨慎回调

  农产品(行情000061,诊股)

  ?白糖

  原糖小幅震荡 国内挑战支撑

  zuoriyuantangxiaofuzhendang,yinshoubaxitangchanliangxiahuadeyuqitizhen。zhuliheyuezuigaochuji14.77meifenmeibang,zuididiedao14.54meifenmeibang,zuizhongshoupanjiageshangzhangdie0.41%,baoshouzai14.76meifenmeibang。baxizhongnanbuganzhezhuchanqudetangchanliangliaozaixiayiniandujiangzhi3niandiwei,yinzaizhidequefaxuejianganzhedanchan,qieyichunchanliangzengjia。kingsmanyugubaxizhongnanbu2018-19niandutangchanliangwei3399wandun。zhongnanbuzhanbaxiquanguotangtangchanliangdeyu90%。zheiyitangchanliangshuipingyiweizhetongbixiahua210wandun,bingqiejiangshi2015-16niandushengchande3122wandunyilaizuidishuiping。;xiangduidi,guochupaochuliupaidexiaoxizhengzhububeishichangxiaohua,suiranbaitiantangjiazaiduxiadie,danzaixiawushoupanshishoufushidi。cankaoqitapinzhongdejingyan,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhirenweicicipaochubuyingxiangshichangzhongqizoushi,duiyuzhongduanqitouzizhekeyidengdaijiageqiwenhou,fengdimairu1801heyue。erzaiqiquantouzishang,duiyuxianhuoshangzekeyizaiduanqijinxingchiyouxianhuodejichushangjinxinggundongmaichulvexuzhikanzhangqiquandebeiduiqiquanzuhecaozuo,zaiweilai1-2nian,beiduiqiquanzuhedecaozuokeyizuoweixianhuoshouyidezengqiangqichixujinxing;tongshiduiyujiazhitouzizheeryan,yikeyimairu6300zhi6400xingquanjiadexuzhikanzhangqiquan,dengdaitangjiashangzhangshidexuzhiqiquanbianchengshizhihou,keyipingcangqianqidixingquanjiadekanzhangqiquanbingjixumairuxinyilundexuzhikanzhangqiquan(xingquanjia6500huo6600dekanzhangqiquan),bingzaitangjiadadao6600yuan/dunyishangshizhubuzejizhiying。

  ?棉花及棉纱

  美棉继续下跌,国内棉花承压回调

  icemianhuaqihuozuorijixuxiadie,yinduijufengmaliyaduimianhuazaochengdeqianzaipohuaidedanyoujiantui,shichangdengdaimianhuashouge,zhuliice12yueqimiandie1.05meifen/bang,baomeibang68.2meifen。juusdazuixinshuju,9yue14ridangzhou,2017/18niandumeimianjingqianyue6.31wandun,huanbizengjia4.75wandun,tongbizengjia1.46wandun;zhuangyun4.11wandun,huanbizengjia1.57wandun,tongbizengjia0.36wandun,qianyueshuliangzhanchukouyugu(9yueusda)bi51%,gaoyuwunianjunzhi9%;guoneifangmian,zhengmianyumianshachengyahuidiao,zuizhongmianhuazhuli1801heyueshoupanbao15415yuan/dun,die215yuan/dun,mianshazhuli1801heyueshoupanbao23210yuan/dun,die175yuan/dun。chubeimianlunchufangmian,benzhoudi4rilunchu30024dun,shijichengjiao29460dun,chengjiaolv98.12%,chengjiaojunjiadie124yuan/dunzhi14800yuan/dun,9yue22rijihualunchuliangzai2.68wandun,qizhongxinjiangmian1.94wandun。xianhuojiachiwenlvezhang,cc index 3128bbao15974yuan/dun,jiaoqianyijiaoyirishangzhang2yuan/dun。xiayoushaxianxianhuoyichiwenshangzhang,32zhipushushaxianjiagezhishu23400yuan/dun,40zhijingshushaxianjiagezhishu26900yuan/dun。zongzhi,meimianjixuxiadie,guoneixinhuazhubushangshi,duanqizhengmianshouciyingxiangerweichizhendang,zhonghouqikanzhangbubian,touzizhezekeyidengmeimianlikongxiaohuawanbizhubufengdimairu。tongshijinqimianshaxianhuozhubujianting,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhikeyidengdaimianshaqiwenhouyikezhubufengdimairu。

  ?豆菜粕

  美豆出口表现强劲

  cbotdadouzuorixiaozhangshoupanbao970.6meifen/pu,buguozongtirengzaiqujianxiangtizhendang。zhouduchukouxiaoshoubaogaolihao,zuijinyizhoumeidouchukouxiaoshouliang233.8wandun,yuangaoyushichangyugude120-150wandun。tongshiusdagongbusirenchukoushangxiangzhongguoxiaoshou13.2wandundadou。muqianshichangzaifengchandelikonghexuqiuqiangjingdeliduozhijianboyi。meidouyijingjinrushougeqi,jiezhishangzhourishougelv4%,youlianglvjiaoyizhouqianjiang1%zhi59%。fengchandelikongyizaiyuqinei,erxuqiuchixubiaoxianqiangjingjiangduijiagechanshengzhicheng,xiangjiaozhiqian,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhimuqianduishichangxiangduikanhao。lingwaisuizhemeiguochanliangluodi,houqiguanzhudianjiangzhujianzhuanyizhinanmeidadoubozhongheshengzhang,chaozuoticaizengjia。guoneifangmianbiandongbuda,shangzhougangkouheyouchangdadoukucunjunyousuoxiajiang,buguorengchuzailishitongqigaowei。shangzhouyouchangkaijilvzengzhi58.72%,douporijunchengjiaoliangyouyizhouqian11.5wandunzengzhi16.2wandun,youchangdoupokucunciqianlianxu6zhouxiajiang,buguoshangzhoulveyouhuisheng,jiezhi9yue17riyou82.49wandunshengzhi83.77wandun。zhalifenghoujiashangguoqingqianbeihuo,benzhouyouchangyujijixubaochigaokaiji。benzhouxianhuoshangchengjiaohetihuoliangjunmingxianzengjia,zuoridoupochengjiaoliang30.32wandun,chengjiaojunjia2819(+28),tihuoliang7.94wandun。yujidoupodanbianrengjixugensuimeidou,jichazanshizaidangqianshuipingbaochiwending。

  ?油脂

  商品弱势 油脂调整

  meidouzuorizongtizhendangxiaozhang,shouzhiyumeidouchukouxuqiujiaoqiang,shichangzaiduanzandiaozhenghoumeiguoxuqiuqiangjingyejiangshidepinghengbiaodeqimokucunhekuxiaobizengjiafudushouxian,jiagekenenghaijiangbaochiruoshizhendangzhizhijijiexingshougedidianqian。mapanzuorixiadie,jiuyuebaokuohouqichanliangyujihuifujiaokuai,9ri1-15rimazongchukouhuanbizeng20%,duiyindujicidaluchukouliangyouxiahua,cilunmalaishangzhangfuduyijingjiaogao,houqiyidanchanlianghuifu,mapanjiangchuxianjiaodafududiaozheng。guoneijibenmianbianhuabushitaida,zongyoukucun36wandun,douyou137wandun,jieribeihuoyijingjinruhouqi,chengjiaozhujianjianshao,houqizongyoudaogangzhujianzengduoyalimanmantuxianchulai。shangpinqihuozuorijixushadie,kongtoufenweichixu,youzhigensuizouruo,caozuoshangjianyiguanwangshichangfenwei,daifengxianshifangwanquanhoukekaolvjierujibenmianjiaoqiangdecaiyouduodan。lingwaizongyouzaichixushangzhanghoujichazoudi,xiangduidoucaiyoujiazhishangyechuyuxiangduigaowei,houqichanliangdagailvhuifujiaokuai,mapanyeyizaidiaozheng,taolishangkekaolvshishijierudouzonghuocaizongjiacha。

  ?玉米及淀粉

  期价小幅反弹

  guoneiyumixianhuojiagezhengtiwenzhongyoudie,qizhonghuabeidiquyumishenjiagongqiyeshougoujiajixuxiadie,qitadiquchiwen;dianfenxianhuojiagezhengtiwending,bufenchangjiaxiadiaobaojia20-30yuan/dun。shichangxiaoxifangmian,tianxialiangcangzhongdiangenzongde29jiashenjiagongqiye+gangkoudianfenkucuncongshangzhoude16.17wandunhuishengzhi17.69wandun;9yue21rifendaifenhaijihuajiaoyi2013nianlinchuyumi48970dun,shijichengjiao48953dun,chengjiaojunjia1335yuan;zhongchuliangbaoganxiaoshoujihuajiaoyi2014nianlinchuyumi903801dun,shijichengjiao755459dun,chengjiaojunjia1468yuan。yumiyudianfenqijiazaopanzhendang,weipanxiaofuzengcangshangxing。zhanwanghouqi,kaolvdaomuqianyumiyuanyueqijiaduiyingdechanquhexiaoqujiagegaoqi,buliyuxinzuoyumideshijixuqiuyubukuxuqiu。yinci,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhiweichikankongpanduan;duiyudianfeneryan,kaolvdaohuanbaojianchayingxianghuoquruo,houqixinzuoyumishangshiqianhouyouxinzengchannengtoufang,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhiyujiyuanqigongxuquyugaishan,jieheyumiqijiayuqi,zaijiashangqianzaikenengdeshenjiagongbutiezhengce,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhitongyangrenweiyuanyuedianfenqijiayicunzaigaogu。zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhijianyitouzizhekeyikaolvjixuchiyouqianqi1yueyumi/dianfenkongdanhuodianfen-yumijiachataolizuhe,yi8yuexiaxungaodianzuoweizhisun。

  ?鸡蛋

  现货价格继续下跌

  zhihuashujuxianshi,quanguojidanjiagejixuxiadie,qizhongzhuchanqujunjiaxiadie0.04yuan/jin,zhuxiaoqujunjiaxiadie0.13yuan/jin,maoyijiankongxianshi,maoyishangshouhuorongyi,zouhuojiaoman,maoyizhuangkuangzhengtijiaoqianyirixiaofugaishan,maoyishangkucunpiandi,jiaoqianyirijixuxiaofuhuisheng,maoyishangkandieyuqijianruo,qizhonghuadongyuxinandiqukandieyuqijiaoweiqianglie。jidanqijiazaopanjixuxiadie,wuhouzhubufandan,dafushouzhang,yishoupanjiaji, 1yueheyueshangzhang95yuan,5yueheyueshangzhang45yuan, 9yueheyuejiejindaoqi。fenxishichangkeyikanchu,jinqijidanxianhuojiageruqichixudafuhuiluo,qijiadiefuxiangduixiaoyuxianhuojiage,qijiatieshuizhuanweishengshui,biaomingshichangyuqifashenggaibian,jicongguoqufanyingxianhuojiagegaodianhuiluodeyuqizhuanxianghouqichunjieqianshangzhangdeyuqi,congpanmianbiaoxianlaikan,shichanghuoyuqi4000zuoyouwei1yueqijiadibuquyu。zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,jianyitouzizheguanwangweiyi。

  ?生猪

  跌跌不休

  zhuyiwangshujuxianshi,zuoriquanguowaisanyuanshengzhujunjiawei14.38yuan/gongjin,jiaoqianyirizaidiao0.06yuan/gongjin。zhujiajixuxiadiemeishangliang,jinzaoshoulaixiaoxi,tuqishougoujiazaijiang0.1yuan/gongjin。dongbeijiageyipo7,huabeijudiyishishou,zhuliujia14yuan/gongjin。huadongdiquzhujiaxiadiediquyousuojianshao,chushandongwaiqitadiqujiagehaizai14.5yuan/gongjinyishang。huazhongdiquhenanlingdie,xiajiangfudu0.15yuan/gongjin。lianghuzanwen,zhuliujia14.3yuan/gongjin。huanandiqupudie0.1yuan/gongjin,liangguangzhuliujia14.5yuan/gongjin,hainan14yuan/gongjin。xinandie0.1yuan/gongjin,chuanyu15.1yuan/gongjin。chuanshuodejinjiuyinshiyejiuzheimehuishile,duanqijiagewuyoulizhicheng,chulanzengduoshishishi,tuqishunshishouzhu,zengliangbingbumingxian,yuqizhujiajixuxiadie。

  能化

  ?动力煤

  港口现货僵持,期价高位回调

  shouheisezhengtifenweibujiajizhengcexingbaogongyingdengxiaoxidaya,zuoridongmeiqihuodafuhuidiao,zhuli01heyueyepanshoubao635.6,1-5jiachasuozhaizhi56.4。xianhuoshichangfangmian,shoujijiangzhaokaideshijiudahuiyideyingxiang,shanxi、shanxibufenlutiankuangtingchan、jianchan,suiranneimenggufangkaiduihuogongpinxianzhi,danchandigongyingrengjiaojinzhang,kengkoumeijiayanxuzhangshi。gangkoufangmian,gangkoumeijiagaoweijiangchi,shouchengbenpiangaoyijiduiyuyuanqishichangfengxiankaolvdengyinsuyingxiang,maoyishangshanghuojijixingbugao,xiayouduiyudangqianpiangaoweidebaojiajieshouchengduyebugao,qinhuangdao5500dakadonglimeimomei+0zhi702yuan/dun。

  xiaoximianshang,jinrifagaiweifabuguanyuzuohaomeidianyouqiyunbaozhanggongzuodetongzhicheng,geshengqushihexiangguanqiyeyaojiaqiangmeitanchanyunxudongtaijiancefenxi,jishifaxianhexiediaojiejuegongyingzhongchuxiandetuchuwenti,nulibaozhangshijiudazhaokaiqianhoumeitanwendinggongying。

  beifanggangkoukucunzhendanghuisheng,qizhongqingangrijunzhuangchuanfayunliang57.5wandun,rijuntieludiaojinliang66wandun,gangcun+8zhi562wandun;caofeidiangangkucun-3zhi317wandun,jingtanggangguotougangqukucun+4zhi108wandun。

  zuoridianchangrihaozhendanghuisheng,yanhailiudadianlijituanhejihaomei73wandun,hejidianmeikucun983wandun,cunmeikeyongtianshu13.5tian。

  zuorimeitanyanhaiyunfeizhangshifanghuan,zhongguoyanhaimeitanyunjiazhishubao1172,jiaoqianyirishangzhang0.01%。

  zhengtilaikan,9-10yuezhongyaohuiyi、chandihuanbao/anjianhuojiangjixuxianzhigongyingshifang,xiayoudianchangrihaosuiyouxiajiang,danrengzaijiaogaoshuiping,xianhuozhichengqianglie。erduiyuqihuopanmianlaishuo,01heyueduiyingqunuanwangji,danshijianshangyouzhihuanchannengtoufangyali,gaoweiyalixianxian,guanzhuzhoubianshichangzhengtifenwei、rihaohuiluofudujixianjinchannengshifangqingkuang。

  ?PTA

  聚酯产销一般,PTA偏弱运行

  zuorishangpinzhengtifenweibujia,ptaruoshixiadie,zhuli01heyueyepanbaoshou5268,1-5jiachakuodazhi92。shichangchengjiaoyousuofangliang,zhuliugongyingshangcaigouxianhuoweizhu,bufenjuzhigongchangyousuojiepan,shichangjichajixushousuo。rineizhuliuxianhuohe01heyueshangtanchengjiaojichazaitieshui20-35,cangdanhe01heyuebaopanzaitieshui30;baitian5185-5275zitichengjiao,5263-5281songdaochengjiao,5239cangdanchengjiao。

  zuoripxbaojiazhendanghuiluo,yazhougeyecfrpanbao847meiyuan/dun(-3),jiagongfei850fujin。px 10yuebao840meiyuan/dun,11yue852meiyuan/dun。weilaiguoneipxkenenghuiqukucun,danyujirengbuhuiquehuo。

  ptazhuangzhifangmian,jiangsuyitaonianchan150wandundeptazhuangzhijianxiushijianyanzhang5tianzuoyou;huabinyitingchanzhongdeptaqiyediyichuanpxjinridigang,danchuguanshiyishangweiwanquanluoshi,baoshouyuji11yuefenkaiche;fujianyitingchanzhongdeptaqiyeyiqiandingzhongzuxieyi,jieshikaichejinchengkenengjiakuai,chubujihuasijidubufenchannenghuifukaiche。

  xiayoufangmian,zuorijiangzhedisichanxiaozhengtiyijiuyiban,zhixiawu3dianbanfujinpingjungusuanzai6-7cheng;zhifangdiduanxiaoshouyiban,xiayougangxubuhuo,daduochanxiaozai5-8chengfujin。

  zhengtilaikan,9-10yuefen ptazhuangzhijianxiu,jiazhijuzhidikucun、gaofuhe,duanqigongxujiegourengyouzhicheng。buguoduiqihuo01heyuelaishuo,chengbenduanpxsijiduzhichengfali,zishenxinlaozhuangzhi11-12yuehuifuyalixiapanmiangaojiagongfeinanyiweichi,ptahuidiaoyalirengcun,guanzhushangpinshichangzhengtifenwei、xiayoujuzhichanxiao&kucunbiandongyijiguojiyoujiaqingkuang。

  ?天胶

  沪胶1801短期可能企稳

  guanyujinqixiadie(1)1801jiachagaoxiaolvhuigui,laizi 8yueshujudiyuduotouyuqi,yanzhengkongtoudexuqiupianruo(2)gongyingcebankuaizouruo。(3)xiangjiaochanyenei,panmianpeizhikongtoudejuduo,feibiaotao,sanzhezouxiangyizhi,daozhi11gejiaoyirihuigui800dian。2、duanqi,worenwei14500-15000huitingliu,fandankanzhenggegongyepinheheise。

  ?PE

  节前备货需求仍有待释放、内外倒挂扩大&宏观和商品氛围转弱,短期仍有压力

  9yue21riguoneizhongshihuahuabei、huadong、huazhong、zhongyouhuabei、huadong、huanan、xinan、xibeidaqulldchuchangjiaxiadiao50-200yuan/dun,huabeididuanshichangjiagehuiluozhi9350yuan/dun(meihuagong),muqianl1801shengshuihuabeixianhuozhi170yuan/dun,shihuachangchuchangjiadamianjixiadiao,maoyishangjiaoduodaoguashichangjiachuhuo,xiayoujiehuoyixiangyiban,danduidijiahuoyuandexuqiuyouzeng,xianhuoduanyalirengcun;lingwai9yue20ricfryuandongdiduanzheherenminbijiawei9847yuan/dun,panmianduiwaipandaoguazhi327yuan/dun,xianhuorengdaoguazhi497yuan/dun,waipanqianzaizhichengzengqiang,jiangchixuyingxiangdao10yuefendejinkouliang;xiangguanpinjiachalaikan,hd-lldheld-lldjiachafenbiewei750he650yuan/dun,xiangguanpinduipanmianyalijixuhuanjie,feibiaotaolijihuirengjiaoshao。zhengticongjiachalaikan,waipanqianzaizhichengzengqiang,xiangguanpinyalijixuhuanjie,xianhuoduanyalisuizhejiagehuiluoerzhubuhuanjie,suiranshoumeilianchusuobiaohezhengtishangpinfenweizhuanruodeyingxiang,qihuojiagedadiejixuyizhiduanqixuqiu,danlinjinjieridebeihuoxuqiuhenyoushifangkeneng。

  conggongxumianlaikan,zuorishihuakucunjixuhuiluozhi70wandunfujin,qiejieqianshihuarengchixurangliqukucun,lingwaiqianqitaobaoguhuaxianhuojizhongshifang,zaijiashangjinqihongguanheshangpinfenweizhuanruozengjialeduanqiyali,buguozheixielikongzaiqianqijiagehuiluozhongjiangzhububeixiaohua,zaijiashangjinqixiayoucunzaijieqianbeihuoxuqiu,jiageyidanqiwen,xuqiudagailvjianghuichuxian,lingwaineiwaidaoguayousuokuoda,feibiaopinyalihuanjie,xianhuoduanyalizhububeishichangxiaohuahou,houqirengcunzaiyinxuqiuhaozhuanzaicihuishengdegailv(jieqianbeihuo),yincijianyijieqiandengdaiqingcangshiduodejihui,qianqikongtoujinshenchiyou,yujijinrizhulil1801jiageyunxingqujian9450-9650yuan/dun。

  ?PP

  宏观和商品氛围转弱、装置重启压力&价差支撑、备货需求,PP谨慎偏空

  9yue21ri,guoneizhongshihuahuabei、huanan、zhongyouhuanandaqulasippchuchangjiaxiadiao200yuan/dun,huadongdiduanshichangjiajixuhuiluozhi8500yuan/dun,pp1801duihuadongxianhuoshengshuisuozhaizhi110yuan/dun,qihuojiagechengya,maoyishangjiadajietaochuhuo,xiayoufengdigangxucaigou,dijiahuoyuanyousuoxiaohua,xianhuomianyaliyouhuanjie;shandongbingxidantididuanjiagejixufandanzhi8100yuan/dun,fenliaozhichengjiaweiwei8800yuan/dunfujin,fenliaoyiwulirun,tidaizhichengjiangzhubutixian;lingwai9yue20ricfryuandongdiduanwaipanrenminbijiagexiaofuhuiluozhi9233yuan/dun,pp1801duiwaipandaoguazhi623yuan/dun,xianhuodaoguazhi733yuan/dun,chukouchuangkouyidakai,waipanzhichengjixuzengqiang。congjiachashangkan,jichaweichixiangduidiwei,panmianguhuahuoyuanhuiliuxianhuohoujineryazhipanmian,jinqimaoyishangyeshijiadachuhuolidu,duanqiyaliyouzeng,buguosuizhejiagedehuidiao,houshiyalikeyikandaozhubuhuanjie,qiexiayoujiehuoyiyuanyousuohuisheng,zaijiashangpanmianhexianhuodouchixujiaodafududaoguawaipan,yijipanmianyelinjinfenliaotidaizhicheng,zhengtixiaxingdongnengjianruo,jiachazhichengyeyouzengqiang。

  从供需面来看,昨日PP装置检修率暂稳至14.55%,拉丝比例暂稳至28.23%,拉丝PP存量供应稳定,不过近期神华包头、石家庄炼厂和海伟石化有重启计划,另外新产能释放也将陆续兑现(宁煤三期、云天化(行情600096,诊股)和中天合创),再加上目前基差持续偏低,固化到01合约上的货源都逐步回流至现货,不过这部分压力随着价格的回落,已有一定消化,且近期塑编需求陆续低位回升,整体需求季节性好转仍未被证伪,再加上十一节前存在备货需求,目前PP仍将是现货端压力继续消化和需求季节性回升之间的博弈,因此短期盘面或谨慎偏空,关注需求回升、内外倒挂和粉料替代等对盘面的支撑,预计今日PP1801价格运行区间为8500-8650元/吨。

  ?甲醇

  MEG补跌、烯烃利润低位&贴水现货、产区偏紧,甲醇偏空谨慎

  xianhuo:9yue21rijiachunxianhuojiagezhangdiehuxian,qizhongtaicangdiduanjiagewei2730yuan/dun,shandong、henan、hebei、neimenghexinandexianhuojiagefenbiewei2670(-200)、2700(-200)、2720(-260)、2520(-500yunfei)he2750(-180yunfei)yuan/dun,chanqukejiaogehuoyuandiduanjiagewei2870-3020yuan/dun,chanxiaotaolichuangkouwanquanguanbi,01duitaicangjixudaoguazhi32yuan/dun,kaolvdaochanxiaotaolichuangkouchixuguanbi,zheiwuyiduigangkouxianhuohepanmiandouyoujianjiezhicheng;

  neiwaijiacha:9yue20ricfrzhongguoxianhuorenminbijiagezaicihuiluozhi2895yuan/dun(han50gangzafei),ma801daoguawaipanjiagezhi197yuan/dun,huadongxianhuodaoguawaipanzhi165yuan/dun,waipanduiguoneixianhuohepanmianzhichengzengqiang。

  成本:昨日鄂尔多斯(行情600295,诊股)和山东济宁5500大卡坑口煤为391和640元/吨,对应到盘面的成本为2221和2344元/吨,另外是川渝气头甲醇成本对应到华东为1830元/吨,华北焦炉气对应到华东为2240元/吨,目前产区现货抛盘利润仍维持高位;

  xinxingxuqiu:panmianjiagongfeilaikan,pp+megzaicihuiluozhi2437yuan/dun,rengchuyuxiangduigaowei,buguopp-3*maripandepanmianhexianhuojiagongfeizaicihuiluozhi570he310yuan/dun,zuorimegpanmiandadie,bianxiangzengjialeppsuodailaideyali;

  zonghelaikan,zuoriqihuojiagejixudafuhuiluo,zhuyaoshimeghemeilianchusuobiaozhizhengtishangpinfenweijizhuanzhixia,qieppduanqirengmianlinxinchanneng、zhuangzhizhongqihepanmianguhuaxianhuoliuchudeyali,buguojibenmianyaliyouzhubuhuanjiedejixiang,qiexianhuojiagerengbiaoxianjianting,panmiantieshuixianhuokuoda,zaijiashangwenlaizhuangzhianjihuatingcheyijihaishijuwenjianquerenhoudeliduozhicheng,benzhouhuadonggangkoukucunyegaoweihuiluo,duanqijinshenpiankong,bujianyizhuikong,yujiripanma801jiageyunxingqujianwei2680-2750yuan/dun。

  ?原油

  市场聚焦欧佩克JMMC月度会议

  l 市场要闻与重要数据

  1. wti 11yueyuanyouqihuoshoudie0.14meiyuan,diefu0.28%,bao50.55meiyuan/tong。bulunte11yueyuanyouqihuoshouzhang0.14meiyuan,zhangfu0.25%,bao56.43meiyuan/tong。nymex 10yueqiyouqihuoshoubao1.6438meiyuan/jialun。nymex 10yuequnuanyouqihuoshoubao1.8153meiyuan/jialun。

  2. juxibencijianchanjianduhuiyiyujijiangyubeijingshijianzhouwuxiawusidianzaiweiyenajuxing,keweitezhuchi,weineiruila、aerjiliya、eluosidengduoguoguanyuanjiangcanjiahuiyi。lutoubaodaocheng,cicihuiyijiangtaolunyanzhangjianchanxieyijiduichukoujinxingjiankongyipinggujianchanzhixinglvdengyiti。danoupeikedaibiaocheng,muqiangeguoshangweijiujianchanxieyiyanzhangdeshijiandachenggongshi,yiqiejunyoudaitaolun。

  3. eluosinengyuanbuzhang:opecjifeiopecguojiajiangzaiweiyenahuiyishangtaolunyuanyouchukoujianguanwenti。jushichangxiaoxi,opecjishuweiyuanhuijianyichanyouguobuzhangduiyuanyouchukoujinxingjiandu,zuoweijianchanxieyidebuchong。

  4. gaosheng:yujiopechuitanbuhuiyanzhangshiyoujianchanxieyi,danxianzaijiuxiadinglunhaiyanzhiguozao。xiangxinopecshiyoujianchanjianduweiyuanhuibenzhoubingbuhuijianyiyanzhangjianchanxieyi。dangqianjibenmianqiangjing,zhichigaoshengzhongshenbuyouniandikanzhangzhi58meiyuan/tongdeyuqi。

  5. youlungenzongwangzhantankertracker:yujijiezhi10yue7rioupeikeyuanyousizhouchukouliangjiangxiajiang14wantong/rizhi2382wantong/ri。

  l 投资逻辑

  jinqishichangjujiaoopecyuedudejmmchuiyi,shichangjiaoweiguanzhudejigewentizhuyaojizhongzai:1.shifouhuiyanzhangjianchanxieyi;2.ruhejiaqiangjianchanxieyidezhixingyujiandu,shifouhuijiankongchukouzhibiao;3.niriliyahelibiyashifouhuijiarujianchanduiwu。zongtilaikan,youyujinnianshiyoukucunquhuajiaoweixianzhu,opeczaimuqianshijiandiankenenghaibuhuikaolvyanzhangjianchanxieyi,danbupaichuzaimingnianyijiduzhaokailinshihuiyiyanzhangjianchan,agdanbaopingtaiwangzhigujijintianjmmchuiyishangjiangzhongdiantaolunruhejiaqiangjianchandejianduyuzhixing,buguomuqianjianduchukouliangrengyouzhuduojishuxingnantishangdaijiejue。niriliyahelibiyamuqianchanlianghaiweiwanquanfuchanzhizhengchangshuiping,jiarujianchandegailvkenengbuda。

  ?沥青

  商品市场整体下行 沥青现货出货有所好转

  guandiangaishu:

  zuorizhengtishangpinqihuoshichangchengxianxiaxingzoushi,jiaomei、guitiediefuchaoguo5%,huagongpinyepubianxiaxing,jiachundiefuchaoguo4%,xiangjiao、pvcdiefuchaoguo3%,jutiliqingqihuozairipanqijianbaochizhendangxiaxingzoushi,zhuliheyue1712zuorixiawushoupanjia2438yuan/dun,jiaozuorijiesuanjiaxiadie34yuan/dun,diefu1.38%,chicang681548shou,chengjiao965500shou。cicixiaxinggengduoshishoudaoshangpinshichangzhengtifenweideyingxiang,liqingjibenmianbingwujinyibuehuadequshi。

  xianhuoshichangjixubaochiwending,huadongshichangzhuliuchengjiaojiage2400-2500yuan/dun,shandongshichangzhuliuchengjiao2350-2450yuan/dun,huananshichangzhuliuchengjiaojiage2450-2550yuan/dun。muqianlaikan,huanbaoduchajieshuzhihou,xiayoudaolushigongzaizhubuhuifu,shandongdiquzaihuanbaoduchajieshuzhihou,lianchangchuhuoyijingyousuohaozhuan,huadongdiquyezaizhubuhuifu,danmuqiangaidiqujiangyujiaoduo,rengbingweifangliang,huabeizaishiyijiaqizhiqianmaoyishangbeihuojiaoweijiji,zhengtichuhuoqingkuangjiaohao,huanandiquyouyujinritianqiqingkuangjiaohao,zhengtichuhuoyejiaoweishunchang。muqianbeifangdiqujuli10yuezhongxiaxunhaiyoujiejin1geyuezuoyoudeshigongqi,huanbaoyingxiangdaolushigongfanghuan,jinqiyingyougangongqingkuang,zhichengliqingxuqiu。diejiaguoqingjiaqilinjin,shandong、hebei、dongbeidengdiquchuxianjizhongdunhuoqingkuang,lianchangkucunyalizhujianhuanjie。chengbenduanguancha,muqianliqingxianhuoyichuyuxiangduidiwei,yuanyoujiageshangdiaohou,lianchanglilunlirunshangzhouxiajiangle110yuan,wei154yuan/dun,xianhuojixuxiadiaodekongjianjiaoweiyouxian。danyingdangzhuyijinnianshoudaohuanbaoyinsuduixuqiuduandeyingxiangyijidongjidaqiwuranzhengzhi,weilaixuqiuhuohuibujiyuqi。ciwaijinniangedidilianliqingdaijiagongliangdafutigao,liqingchanlianghechannengjundafuzengjia,daoniandixianhuoshichangyingbaochigongyingxiangduichongfendezhuangtai。

  zongtilaikan,xiangduiyuchuyuchuantongwangjixuqiudeliqinglaijiang,jinyibudafuxiadiedekongjianyouxian,yujiweilaisuizhexiayoushigongdehuisheng,huiyoujinyibushangzhangkongjian。

  celvejianyi:

  2500yuanjiawei,fengdizuoduo,guanzhuyuedujiachabianhua。

  celvefengxian:

  liqingchanliangguosheng,gongyingguodushifang,guojiyoujiadafubodong。

  量化期权

  豆粕卖出宽跨可逐步止赢,白糖隐含波动率回升

  ?豆粕期权

  doupoqihuozhuli1yueheyue,9yue21rijiagejixuzhendang,ripanjiageshouyu2741yuan/dun,dangrichengjiaoliangwei91wanshou,chicangliang188wanshou,chengjiaoliang、chicangliangweichiwending。

  doupoqiquanjinrichengjiaoliangweichiwending,zongchengjiaoliang1.13wanshou(danbian,xiatong),chicangliang12.77wanshou。1yueheyuechengjiaoliangzhansuoyouheyuechengjiaoliangde73%,chicangliangzhansuoyouheyuechicangliangde70%。doupoqiquandedanbianchicangtoucunxianeyou300fangkuanzhi2000,shichangchengjiaohuoyueduxianzhutisheng。doupokandieqiquanchengjiaoliangyukanzhangqiquanchengjiaoliangdebizhiyidongzhi0.52,kandieqiquanchicangliangyukanzhangqiquanchicangliangdebizhizeweichizai0.63,qingxujixuweichizhongxingpianleguan,yujiguoqingqiandoujiangweichizhaifuzhendangdexingqing。

  usdayuedugongxubaogaogongbuhou,yinhanbodonglvchixuxiaxing。1yuedoupoqiquanpingzhiheyuexingquanjiayidongzhi2750deweizhi,yinhanbodonglvjixuxiaxingzhi16.94%,yinhanbodonglvyu60rilishibodonglvdechazhikuodazhi-1.83%。9yueusdayuedugongxubaogaogongbuhou,yinhanbodonglvyulishibodonglvbeilidejumianhuojiangjieshu,panmianjiageyujijiangweichixiaofubodong,yinhanbodonglvchuyuxiangdangdiwei,jianyimaichukuankuaqiquantoucun(maichum1801-c-2800hem1801-p-2600)kezhubuzhiyingchuchang,fangfanzhoumodailaidebodongjiajufengxian,maichukuankuaqiquanjinrisunyiwei2yuan/fen。

  ?白糖期权

  baitangqihuozhuli1yueheyue9yue21rijiagezoudi,ripanjiageshouyu6135yuan/dun,jinri1yueheyuechengjiaoliangwei47wanshou,chicangliangwei69wanshou,chengjiaoliang、chicangliangweichiwending。

  baitangqiquanjinrizongchengjiaoliangwei0.67wanshou(danbian,xiatong),zongchicangliangwei6.47wanshou。baitangqiquandedanbianchicangtoucunxianetongyangyou200fangkuanzhi2000,qiquanchengjiaoliang、chicangliangxianzhuzengjia。muqian1yueheyuechengjiaoliangzhanbiwei74%,chicangzhanbiwei57%。jinribaitangqiquanzhengtichengjiaoliangpc_ratioyidongzhi0.66,chicangliangpc_ratiozeweichizai0.90,baitangqiquanchengjiaohuoyueduzaicizoudi,pc_ratioduiqingxudefanyingnengliyouxian。

  muqianbaitang60rilishibodonglvwei11.87%,1yuepingzhiqiquanyinhanbodonglvguaitoushangxingzhi12.41%。muqian1yuepingzhiqiquanyinhanbodonglvyulishibodonglvdechazhisuoxiaowei0.54%。bodonglvshangxing,maichuqiquanzuhefengxianzengzhang,jianyijinshenchiyoumaichukuankuaqiquantoucun(maichusr801p6000hesr801c6400),shouhuoqiquanshijianjiazhi,jinrimaichukuankuazuhe(sr801p6000hesr801c6400)sunyiwei4.5yuan/fen。

  ?国债

  “缩表”尘埃落定,现券收益率上行华

  xingqinghuigu:

  guozhaiqihuoquantianzhendangzoudiduoshushoudie,shichangqingxubugao。5nianqizhuliheyuetf1712shoupandie0.07%bao97.450 yuan,chengjiaoliang9179shou,jiaoshangyijiaoyirijianshao606shou,chicangliang64582shou,jianshao164shou。sanzhangheyuezongchengjiao9283shou,jianshao553shou,zongchicang65486shou,jianshao135shou。10nianqizhuliheyuet1712shoupandie0.15 %bao94.97 yuan,chengjiaoliang35365shou,zengjia7621shou,chicang75017shou,jianshao74shou。sanzhangheyuezongchengjiao35586shou,zengjia7704shou,zongchicang76789shou,jianshao24shou。

  shichangfenxi:

  10yueqidongsuobiao,xianquanshouyilvshangxing:meilianchu9yuefomcshengmingxianshi,jinnian10yueqiqidongjianjinshibeidongsuobiao,tongshiweichijizhunlilv1%~1.25%bubian。yuji2017nianhaijiangjiaxiyici,daozhishichangduanqiduihuobijinsuorengxinyouyuji。meiguoguozhaishouyilvdafushangxing,jingneiyinxingjianxianquanshichangshouyilvshoudaochuandaoxingyingxiangshangzhangfudukuoda。danyangxingyizaoyijingdingdiaoliudongxingwenjianzhongxing,zaizheshoudaozhongguosijidujingjiyuqixiadiaoyingxiang,yangxingdagailvbuhuigensuimeilianchujiaxijiaobu,haiwaichuandaoxingfengxianyingxiangshijianyouxian。

  weiwenjidiaoruchu,zijinmianzhuriquhuan:yangxingzhousijinxing400yi7tian、200yi28tianqinihuigoucaozuo,zhongbiaolilvfenbiewei2.45%、2.75%,junyushangcichiping。dangriyou600yinihuigoudaoqi,wanquanduichongdaoqizijinguimo。yangxinggongkaishichanglianxuliangriduichongdaoqi,weiwenjidiaoruchu。yinxingjianzhiyashihuigoulilvduoshuxiadie,zijinmianzhuriquhuan。danzailiudongxingyalihuanhehoushichangrengwujiaoyireqing,biaomingshichangzijinzailianchusuobiaoqidonghouhejimompakaohelailinqianrengranpianjinshen。

  guokaizhaixuqiuwangsheng,jinchukouxingzhaixuqiupiruan:guokaixing3nianqiguxizengfazhaizhongbiaoshouyilv4.1970%,toubiaobeishu3.75,7nianqiguxizengfazhaizhongbiaoshouyilv4.3486%,toubiaobeishu4.03。jinchukouxing3nianqiguxizengfazhaizhongbiaoshouyilv4.2801%,toubiaobeishu2.26,5nianqiguxizengfazhaizhongbiaoshouyilv4.3322%,toubiaobeishu2.21,10nianqiguxizengfazhaizhongbiaoshouyilv4.3664%,toubiaobeishu2.39。yijishichangzhaobiaojieguofenhua,guokaixingliangqizhaizhongbiaoshouyilvjundiyuzhongzhaiguzhi,xuqiuwangsheng。erjinchukouxingsanqizhaizhongbiaoshouyilvduogaoyuzhongzhaiguzhi,xuqiupiruan。

  caozuojianyi:

  meilianchusuobiaoxuezizhengshiluodi,meilianchubiaoxianchu“jinyingyuange”dejiaxilichang,suiranjingneiguozhaishoudaomeizhaichuandaoxingchongjiershouyilvzougao,danmuqianzhaishidezhuyaomaodunrengzailiudongxing,yangxingyizaoyijingdingdiaoliudongxingwenjianzhongxing,zaizheshoudaozhongguosijidujingjiyuqixiadiaoyingxiang,yangxingdagailvbuhuigensuimeilianchujiaxijiaobu,haiwaichuandaoxingfengxianyingxiangshijianyouxian。yinxingjianzhiyashihuigoulilvduoshuxiadie,zijinmianzhuriquhuan。danzailiudongxingyalihuanhehoushichangrengwujiaoyireqing,biaomingshichangzijinzailianchusuobiaoqidonghouhejimompakaohelailinqianrengranpianjinshen。weichijimoqianqizhaizhaifuzhendangpanduanbubian。

  免责声明:本报告中的信息由华泰期货整理分析,均来源于已公开的资料,报告中的信息分析或所表达的意见并不构成对投资的建议,投资者因报告意见所做的判断,以及有可能产生的损失自行承担。